Footnote 54: M. Sauzet was elected in preference to M. Odillon Barrot. Thiers resigned the Premiership on 14th October; in the new Ministry Soult was President of the Council, Guizot Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Duchatel Minister of the Interior.
Viscount Palmerston to Queen Victoria.
DISAFFECTION IN FRANCE
Windsor Castle, 11th November 1840.
Viscount Palmerston presents his humble duty to your Majesty, and with reference to your Majesty's memorandum of the 9th inst., he entreats your Majesty not to believe that there exists at present in France that danger of internal revolution and of external war which the French Government, to serve its own diplomatic purposes, endeavours to represent.
There is no doubt a large Party among the leading politicians in France, who have long contemplated the establishment of a virtually, if not actually, independent State in Egypt and Syria, under the direct protection and influence of France, and that Party feel great disappointment and resentment at finding their schemes in this respect baffled. But that Party will not revenge themselves on the Four Powers by making a revolution in France, and they are enlightened enough to see that France cannot revenge herself by making war against the Four Powers, who are much stronger than she is.
... But your Majesty may be assured that there is in France an immense mass of persons, possessed of property, and engaged in pursuits of industry, who are decidedly adverse to unnecessary war, and determined to oppose revolution. And although those persons have not hitherto come prominently forward, yet their voice would have made itself heard, when the question of peace or unprovoked war came practically to be discussed.
With regard to internal revolution, there is undoubtedly in France a large floating mass of Republicans and Anarchists, ready at any moment to make a disturbance if there was no strong power to resist them; but the persons who would lose by convulsion are infinitely more numerous, and the National Guard of Paris, consisting of nearly 60,000 men, are chiefly persons of this description, and are understood to be decidedly for internal order, and for external peace.
It is very natural that the French Government, after having failed to extort concessions upon the Turkish Question, by menaces of foreign war, should now endeavour to obtain those concessions, by appealing to fears of another kind, and should say that such concessions are necessary in order to prevent revolution in France; but Viscount Palmerston would submit to your Majesty his deep conviction that this appeal is not better founded than the other, and that a firm and resolute perseverance on the part of the Four Powers, in the measures which they have taken in hand, will effect a settlement of the affairs of Turkey, which will afford great additional security for the future peace of Europe, without producing in the meantime either war with France, or revolution in France.
France and the rest of Europe are entirely different now from what they were in 1792. The French nation is as much interested now to avoid further revolution, as it was interested then in ridding itself, by any means, of the enormous and intolerable abuses which then existed. France then imagined she had much to gain by foreign war; France now knows she has everything to lose by foreign war.