Make temperature forecasts from the daily weather maps for your own station, using the knowledge that you have already gained as to the progression of cyclones and anticyclones (Chapter XVII), and as to the temperature distribution in these areas (Chapter XIV), to help you in this work. Study each day’s map carefully before you decide on what you will say. Then write out your own forecast, and afterwards compare your forecast with that made by the Weather Bureau. Note also, by reference to your own instrumental observations, whether the succeeding temperature conditions are such as you predicted.
Wind Direction.—The weather maps already studied taught us that our winds habitually move in spirals. The composite picture of the wind circulation around cyclones and anticyclones (Chapter XII) further emphasized this important fact. Evidently this law of the systematic circulation of the winds around centers of low and high pressure may be utilized in making forecasts of wind direction.
Applying the knowledge already gained concerning cyclonic and anticyclonic wind circulations, ask yourself what winds a station should have which is within the range of the cyclonic wind system, and is in the following positions with reference to the center: northeast, north, northwest, east, at the center, west, southeast, south, southwest. Ask yourself precisely the same questions with reference to a station within an anticyclonic wind system. Write out a general rule for the kinds of wind changes which may be expected to take place under these different conditions.
When a station is south of the track of a passing cyclone its winds are said to veer, and the change in the direction of its winds is called veering. A station north of the track of a passing cyclone has a change of direction in its winds which is known as backing, the winds themselves being said to back.
Wind Velocity.—What general relation between wind velocities
and areas of low and high pressure did you discover in your study of the weather maps? What was the result of your work on the correlation of the velocity of the wind and the barometric gradient in Chapter X? And what general statement as to the relation between the velocity of the wind and its distance from a cyclonic or anticyclonic center may be made as the result of your work in Chapter XII, on the correlation of cyclones and anticyclones with their wind circulation? These results must be borne in mind in making predictions of coming changes in wind velocities. Forecasts of wind velocities are made in general terms only,—light, moderate, fresh, brisk, high, gale, hurricane,—and are not given in miles per hour.
Make forecasts of wind direction and velocity from the daily weather maps for your own station. Continue these for a week or two, keeping record of the verification or non-verification of each of your forecasts. Then make daily forecasts of temperature and of wind direction and velocity together. Write out your own forecast for each day before you compare it with the official forecast, and if the two differ, keep note of which one seemed to you to be the most accurate.
Weather.—What general relation between kind of weather and cyclones and anticyclones was illustrated on the six maps of our series? What is the average distribution of the different kinds of weather around cyclones and anticyclones, as shown by your composites? (Chapter XVI.) What changes in weather will ordinarily be experienced at a station as a cyclone approaches, passes over, and moves off? What conditions will prevail in an anticyclone?
Make a series of daily forecasts for your own station of probable weather changes, omitting temperature and winds at first. Include in your weather forecasts the state of the sky (clear, fair, cloudy); the changes in the state of the sky (increasing or decreasing cloudiness); the kind of precipitation (rain or snow) and the amount of precipitation (light or heavy).