Write out your forecasts; compare them with the official forecasts, and notice how fully they are verified. Then add temperature and winds to your forecasts so that you will make a complete prediction of probable changes in temperature (kind, amount, and rapidity of change), wind (direction and velocity), and weather. Practice making these complete forecasts for several weeks, if time allows. Use all the knowledge that you have gained in the preceding work to aid you in this. Study each weather map very carefully. Do not write down your forecast until you are sure that you have done the best you can.
Fig. 53.
Vary this exercise by extending your forecasts so as to embrace the whole section of country in which your station is situated (as, e.g., New England, the Gulf States, the Lake region). Pay special attention to making forecasts of cold
waves, of heavy rain or snowstorms, of high winds over the lakes or along the Atlantic coast, etc. When possible, obtain from the daily newspapers any particulars as to damage done by frost or gales, or concerning snow blockades, floods due to heavy rains, etc.
Fig. 53 summarizes what has thus far been learned as to the distribution of the various weather elements around a well-developed center of low pressure. The curved broken lines represent the isotherms (Chapter XIV). The solid concentric oval lines are the isobars (Chapter XI). The arrows represent the winds, the lengths of the arrows being roughly proportionate to the wind velocities (Chapter XII). The whole shaded area represents the region over which the sky is covered by heavy lower clouds. The smaller shaded area, within the larger, encloses the district over which rain or snow is falling (Chapter XVI). The lines running out in front of the cloudy area represent the light upper clouds (cirrus and cirro-stratus) which usually precede an area of low pressure.
Imagine this whole disturbance moving across the United States in a northeasterly direction, and imagine yourself at a station (1) directly in the path of the cyclone; (2) south of the track; and (3) north of the track. In the first case, as the disturbance moved on in its path, you would successively occupy the positions marked A, B, and C on the line AC, passing through the center of the cyclone. In the second case you would be first at D, then at E, and then at F. In the third case you would be at G, H, and J in succession. What changes of weather would you experience in each of these positions as the cyclone passed by you? Imagine yourself at some station halfway between the lines AC and DF. What weather changes would you have in that position with reference to the storm track? In what respects would these weather changes differ from those experienced along the line DF? Imagine your station halfway between the lines AC and GJ. What weather
changes would you have there? How would these changes differ from those experienced along the line GJ?
It must be remembered that Fig. 53 is an ideal diagram. It represents conditions which are not to be expected in every cyclone which appears on our weather maps. If all cyclones were exactly alike in the weather conditions around them, weather forecasting would be a very easy task. But cyclones are not all alike—far from it. Some are well developed, with strong gradients, high winds, extended cloud areas, heavy precipitation, and decided temperature contrasts. Others are but poorly developed, with weak gradients, light winds, small temperature differences, and it may be without any precipitation whatever. Some cover immense districts of country; others are small and affect only a limited area. It therefore becomes necessary to examine the characteristics of each approaching cyclone, as shown on the daily weather map, very carefully. Notice whether it is accompanied by heavy rain or snow; whether its winds are violent; how far ahead of the center the cloudy area extends; how far behind the outer cloud limit the rain area begins; what is the position of the cloud and rain area with reference to the center, and other points of equal importance, and govern yourself, in making your forecast, according to the special features of each individual cyclone. Well-developed cyclones will be accompanied by marked weather changes. Weak cyclones will have their weather changes but faintly marked.
The distance of your station from the center of the cyclone is of great importance in determining what the weather conditions and changes shall be, as may easily be seen by examining Fig. 53. If the storm passes far to the north or far to the south of your station, you may notice none of its accompanying weather conditions, except, perhaps, a bank of clouds on your horizon. You may for a few hours be under the cloudy sky of some passing storm, and yet not be reached by its rainy