area. The shifts in the wind may be marked and the wind velocities high, or the expected veering or backing may hardly be noticeable, owing to the weakness or the distance of the controlling cyclone.
Again, the rapidity with which weather conditions will change depends upon the rate of movement of the cyclone itself. The better developed the cyclone, the higher its velocity of progression, and the nearer its track lies to the station, the more emphatic and the more rapid are the weather changes it causes. On the other hand, the weaker the cyclone, the slower its rate of progression, and the further away its track, the less marked and the slower the weather changes. The probable track of a coming storm, and its probable rate of movement, therefore, need careful study if our forecasts are to be reliable.
There are many other obstacles in the way which combine to render weather forecasting extremely difficult. Some of these difficulties you will learn to overcome more or less successfully by the experience you will gain from a careful and persevering study of the daily weather maps; others, the best forecast officials of our Weather Bureau have not yet entirely overcome. The tracks followed by our cyclones vary more or less from month to month, and even if the average tracks for each month are known, individual cyclones may occur which absolutely disregard these tracks. While the average hourly velocity of cyclones is accurately known for the year and for each month, the movements of individual storms are often very capricious. They may move with a fairly uniform velocity throughout the time of their duration; they may suddenly and unexpectedly increase their rate of movement, or they may as suddenly come nearly to a standstill. The characteristics of cyclones vary in different portions of the country and at different times. Cyclones which have been accompanied by little precipitation on most of their journey
are apt to give increased rain or snowfall as they near the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of St. Lawrence. Cyclones which over one portion of the country were rainy, may give little or no precipitation in another portion. Cyclones and anticyclones are found to have considerable influence on one another, retarding or accelerating one another’s advance, or changing one another’s normal path of progression. While this mutual interaction is clearly seen, and may be successfully predicted in many cases, many other cases arise in which, under apparently similar conditions, the result is very different from the anticipation. Such are some of the difficulties with which weather forecasters have to contend, and which prevent the attainment of greater accuracy in weather prediction.
Part V.—Problems in Observational
Meteorology.
CHAPTER XX.
TEMPERATURE.