In the long-run Egypt herself will benefit as well as the Soudan. Of course, most of the trade now passing through Egypt will return to its natural channel by Suakin and the Red Sea. The Customs now taken at Alexandria will go directly to the Soudan, but as soon as this happens a corresponding reduction can be made in the Egyptian contribution. Nor will purely Egyptian trade with the Soudan suffer. The Nile Valley route will remain, but it will be cheaper for goods from Lower Egypt to travel via Suez and Suakin. The import as well as the export trade of the Soudan will be vastly encouraged, and every step forward in prosperity will make her a better market for the goods of Egypt as well as those of other countries. Once the railway is made, but not till then, there is a possibility of the revenues of the Soudan improving sufficiently to make the country self-supporting, and able to dispense entirely with any annual grant from Egypt.
It is calculated that the construction of the new railway will cost £2,500,000. Taking this as a basis, and assuming that Egypt was able to make an arrangement under which the money should be repaid by annual instalments over a period of ten years, with interest at 5 per cent., it would involve an average annual addition to her expenditure of £318,750, or a total cost of ten times that sum. If the period was twenty years, the average annual cost would be £185,625, or, say, £200,000. It is rash for an outsider to speculate on such subjects, and the figures are merely given as a rough illustration; but it seems certain that Egypt could easily bear any such burden. Nor does it appear a sanguine forecast to estimate that within ten years of the completion of the railway the revenues of the Soudan will have so greatly benefited, both by the direct cheapening of supplies, fuel, and other material, and by the development of trade generally, that at least a saving of £200,000 a year will accrue to Egypt, even if she still finds it prudent to contribute something.
What future capital Egypt will have to find must be uncertain. The whole situation will be changed by the advent of the railway. But if all the signs of the times can be trusted, whatever her expenditure may be, she will have no reason to repent of it.
Note.—Since the above was in print, new light has been thrown on the subject by a passage in the Note on the Budget for 1904 by Sir Eldon Gorst, Financial Adviser to the Khedive:
‘The Council of Ministers has authorized the Ministry of Finance to advance out of the Special Reserve Fund the amount required for the construction of a railway to connect the Valley of the Upper Nile near Berber with the Red Sea at Suakin. The preliminary survey of the proposed line has been completed, and an estimate of its cost prepared. The total sum required, which amounts to about £E1,770,000, will be spread over a period of from three to four years, so that there should be no difficulty in meeting the charge out of the annual increment of the Special Reserve Fund, but it will be obviously undesirable to sanction any further large grants out of the fund during this period. The construction of the railway will be put in hand without delay, and if no unforeseen contingency occurs, it may be hoped that it will be available for traffic in about three years’ time.’
The Special Reserve Fund is made up of the free balance remaining at the disposal of the Egyptian Government when all other claims on their receipts have been settled.
CHAPTER XXIII
CONCLUSION
Some time ago a small detachment of Egyptian troops was passing through a village in a remote and primitive part of Kordofan. A soldier of the party, going to draw water at the well, there met, like Jacob, one of the daughters of the people, who helped him in his task. Out of gratitude for her assistance or admiration for her charms, he gave her one of the few things he had to offer, a large red cotton handkerchief. Attired in it, the damsel excited the admiration and envy of all her fellows, and from this chance seed arose a demand for Manchester cotton goods. But as the desired articles could not be purchased for nothing, the supply of charitable soldiers being limited, the inhabitants had to apply themselves to the collection of gum in order to be able to satisfy their wants. And thus the exports improved as well as the imports.
In different forms the same process is going on all over the Soudan, and the sternest admirer of Arcadian simplicity could hardly deny that the people are happier and better because of it. The country is not such an El Dorado that they are likely to be corrupted by excessive wealth. Their awakening needs can only be satisfied by means of habits of industry. Thanks to good government they are able on the one hand securely to enjoy the fruits of their labour, and on the other hand, they are prevented from taking any short-cuts to fortune by raiding their neighbours and selling them into slavery.