For a full and severe examination of the reports, statistics, and other evidence concerning this and other outbreaks in which preventive inoculations were made, the Report (1901) of the Indian Plague Commission must be studied. The Commissioners, Professor T. R. Fraser, Mr. J. P. Hewett, Professor (now Sir) A. E. Wright, Mr. A. Cumine, Dr. Ruffer, and Mr. C. J. Hallifax, Secretary, travelled and took evidence in India from November 1898 to March 1899: during which time they held 70 sittings and examined 260 witnesses, some at great length. The evidence and the report are published in five large volumes. The report, 540 pages in all, deals exhaustively with the whole subject. It represents the very least—what might almost be called the very worst—that can be said of Haffkine's fluid: and, of course, it reads rather differently from the reports of the men who, with their lives in their hands, and worked almost past endurance, fought plague themselves. The following paragraphs give, so far as possible, the bare facts of various outbreaks of the disease in 1897-99, in which Haffkine's fluid was used.
1. Daman
Plague broke out in Daman, a town in Portuguese territory, north of Bombay, and in constant communication with Bombay by sea, in March 1897. By the end of the month, when a Government cordon was placed round the town, about 2000 out of 10,900 had fled. The outbreak reached its height in mid-April, and was practically over by the end of May. Inoculations were begun on 26th March. The total population on that day (2000 having gone out, and 670 having died of plague) is estimated at 8230. Of these, 2197 were inoculated, and 6033 were left uninoculated. Among the inoculated there were 36 deaths = 1.6 per cent.; among the uninoculated 1482 deaths = 24.6 per cent.
The Commissioners criticise these figures severely, and do not accept them as exact. But they admit the evidence as to the results of inoculation among the Parsee community of Daman. Of this community, 306 in number, 277 were inoculated, and only 29 were left uninoculated. Among the inoculated there was 1 death = 0.36 per cent.: among the uninoculated there were 4 deaths = 13.8 per cent.
They admit, also, the house-to-house investigations made by Major Lyons, I.M.S., President of the Bombay Government Plague Committee. At the end of May, he visited 89 houses, in 62 of which both inoculated and uninoculated were living together. He found that out of 382 inoculated, 36 had died = 9.4 per cent.; out of 123 uninoculated, 38 had died = 30.9 per cent.
2. Lanauli
Plague attacked Lanauli, a small hill-station and railway depot, during April to September 1897. The entire population was estimated at about 2000. Inoculations were begun on 24th July in two wards of the town, and a daily house-to-house inspection was instituted. The figures reported, on the basis of the average daily strength of the two groups, are as follows:—
Inoculated, 323, with 14 cases, of which 7 died = 2 per cent.
Uninoculated, 377, with 78 cases, of which 57 died = 15 per cent.
The Commissioners criticise the method on which these figures are based, and do not accept them as accurate. But they agree that inoculation "exerted a distinct preventive effect"; and they admit Major Baker's evidence—"In the place where inoculation had been made use of, the town was thriving and full of people; and the other part of the town was absolutely empty. One side had plague, and the other had none."