3. Kirki
The figures here were obtained under especially favourable circumstances; and the Commissioners have, practically, no fault to find with their accuracy. The following account is by Surgeon-Major Bannerman, Superintendent of the Plague Research Laboratory, Bombay:—
"Plague broke out in Kirki, in the artillery cantonment, situated four miles from Poona; and the followers of the four batteries stationed there suffered severely. These men were living with their families in lines on a sloping plain, under military discipline, and in circumstances far superior in a sanitary sense to those of the average villager. When the disease appeared, the lines were isolated, so that none could enter or leave without the knowledge of the military. A special hospital was erected close by, where all sick persons were sent as they were discovered by the search parties of European artillerymen, who visited each house thrice daily. It is therefore probable that all cases of plague were promptly discovered and removed to hospital: and in each case the usual disinfection was thoroughly and systematically carried out. Yet, in spite of all this, it was found that, in those not protected by inoculation, 1 out of every 6 of the population was attacked, and 2 out of every 3 attacked died. The epidemic was, therefore, a severe one. The population of the lines numbered 1530; and, out of these, 671 volunteered for inoculation. At the close of the epidemic, the plague-hospital admission and discharge book was examined, and compared with the register of those inoculated, when the following result was got. The population operated on being under military discipline, and confined to their lines, makes the accuracy of the figures undoubted:—
Inoculated, 671, with 32 cases, of which 17 died = 2.5 per cent.
Uninoculated, 859, with 143 cases, of which 98 died = 11.4 per cent.
"Here, then, is seen a body of people divided into two groups by the fact that one had undergone inoculation and the other not, but differing in no other way, reacting towards plague in such a markedly different manner that the conclusion is forced on one, that the inoculation must be the cause. Seeing the absolute similarity of conditions, the 671 inoculated should have had proportionately 112 cases and 77 deaths, if they had remained as susceptible to the disease as their uninoculated brothers, sisters, parents, wives, husbands, children; but, instead of that, they had only 32 cases and 17 deaths. This death-rate would doubtless have been still further reduced, but for the fact that a very much weakened vaccine had to be used, owing to the demand having got beyond the resources of the laboratory at that time."
4. Belgaum
In Belgaum, a town of Southern India with a normal population of about 30,700, two outbreaks of plague occurred in quick succession. The first outbreak lasted from November 1897 to May 1898; the second, from July 1898 to January 1899. During the two epidemics, 2466 persons were inoculated. Of these, it was reported that only 61 (or 62) had been attacked, of whom 33 died = 1.34 per cent. But these figures, in the judgment of the Commission, cannot be accepted as even approximately correct. There are, however, two groups of these Belgaum cases, one of which the Commission admits as substantially accurate, and the other as absolutely accurate. These groups are, (1) the Army cases; (2) the cases reported by Major Forman, R.A.M.C., Senior Medical Officer of the Station.
(1) The Army Cases.-These cases occurred in the 26th Madras Infantry, which was living in lines close to the cantonment and the city. The first case of plague in the regiment was on 12th November 1897. Ten days later, the regiment was moved out into camp. Inoculation was begun, by Surgeon-Major Bannerman, on 23rd December, up to which time there had been, among the regiment and its families and followers, 78 cases, with 49 deaths. The following account of the inoculations is given by Surgeon-Major Bannerman:—
"No difficulty was experienced in persuading the men to consent to inoculation, when it was explained to them that they would be free to return to their houses in the lines after being operated on. General Rolland was the first to be operated on, and his example, combined with that of the officer commanding, and their medical officer, who were all operated on in front of the men, sufficed to convince the Sepoys of the harmlessness of the operation: and the only difficulty that then remained was to perform the operation fast enough.... The community was, practically, completely inoculated by the end of the year. The total operated on was 1665, out of a population of 1746 living in the lines at that date. The 81 not operated on were infants, women far advanced in pregnancy, and the sick in hospital chiefly, though one solitary Sepoy has, up to the present time, refused to submit to operation."