From this time onward to the end of the first epidemic, though the disease was at its height in January in the neighbouring city and cantonment, and though the men were allowed to go freely to these places after inoculation, only 2 out of the 1665 were attacked, and both recovered.
When the second epidemic came, in July 1898, the troops, families, and followers, were reinoculated at their own request, 1801 in all. "Practically no one was left in the lines unprotected by inoculation." From this time onward to the end of the second epidemic, though it was much more severe than the first, only 12 cases occurred. In the first epidemic, before inoculation, 78 cases occurred, and 2 after it: in the second, and much more severe, epidemic, though the sanitary measures adopted in both epidemics were similar, only 12 cases occurred. "It would hardly appear to be open to doubt," says the Commission, "that the practical immunity of the regiment, during the second outbreak, was due to inoculation."
(2) Major Forman's evidence before the Commission is very striking, though the figures are small. The following abstract of it is given in the Report of the Commission:—
"The groups of persons, concerning whom Major Forman gave us evidence, were his private servants, and the hospital attendants of the Belgaum Station Hospital with their wives and children. He inoculated these groups when plague first broke out in the town, and was able to keep in touch with them continuously after that time. Regarding the first group, he says, bringing down their history to 3rd March 1899, 'Of my private servants there were in all, including their wives and children, 28 people inoculated. There have been no cases of plague, and no deaths up to date. There were 3 uninoculated. One was a child of 9 years of age, whose father refused to allow it to be inoculated. It died of plague 12 days after the other people were inoculated. The other 2 cases that were not inoculated were not so distinctly under my own observation. One was a sweeper employed in the cantonment, and sleeping in my compound: he, I am told, died of plague some months afterwards. The other was my water-carrier: he threw himself into a well: I was informed that he had buboes and fever, and ran away to escape segregation. Of the 28 inoculated, none died of plague: and of 3 uninoculated, 2 are said to have died of plague, and 1 undoubtedly died of plague.'"
"Regarding the second group of which he gave us particulars, Major Forman said that, out of 90 hospital servants, 87 were inoculated. Of the inoculated persons, 1 died from fever and endocarditis, and 1 died of plague. Excepting these two, the rest of the inoculated were alive and well in March 1899. Only 3 persons remained uninoculated. Of these, one was not operated upon, because she had recently been delivered; another was not operated upon, because she was pregnant; and the third was a boy of 16 years of age, whose father refused to let him be inoculated. The boy died of plague, two months after the inoculation of the rest of the hospital servants had been done. One of the two uninoculated women died of plague two days after the boy, she having been in attendance upon him. The other uninoculated woman remained well."
5. The Umarkhadi Jail, Bombay
Plague broke out in this jail on the last day of 1897, and 3 prisoners died. Next day, 1st January 1898, all the prisoners were paraded, and all were willing to be inoculated. But it was decided to divide them into two equal groups, and inoculate one group. There were 402 altogether: 2, when their turn came, refused to be inoculated: thus 199 were inoculated, and 203 were left uninoculated. No distinction was made between the two groups: "They had the same food and drink, the same hours of work and rest, and the same accommodation." The plague did not come wholly to an end till March. The figures, since the inmates of a jail are a shifting population, are based on the average daily number of each group: this was 147 for the inoculated, and 127 for the uninoculated. The figures are:—
| Average Daily Number. | Cases. | Deaths. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inoculated | 147 | 3 | 0 |
| Uninoculated | 127 | 9 | 5 |
The Commission draw attention to "the important fact that, during the whole period of the outbreak, the number of attacks among the inoculated was only one-third of the number among the uninoculated; and that the disease among the inoculated was remarkably mild, resembling mumps more than plague, though the cases among the uninoculated were of average severity." According to Surgeon-Major Bannerman, the hospital authorities were doubtful whether these three cases among the inoculated were plague at all.