The lifetime chances of going to prison increased more rapidly for black females (from 1.1% in 1974 to 5.6% in 2001) than for white males. Hispanic females (from 0.4% in 1974 to 2.2% in 2001) and white females (from 0.2% in 1974 to 0.9% in 2001) had smaller increases in their lifetime chances of going to prison.
At every age men have higher chances of going to prison than women, and blacks and Hispanics have higher chances than whites. Based on current rates of first incarceration, an estimated 6.7% of black males will enter State or Federal prison by the time they are age 20, compared to 3.0% of Hispanic males and 0.8% of white males.
Methodology
Life table techniques
Life table techniques previously used to illustrate the implications of prevailing incarceration rates in 1991 have been extended to model the incarceration experience of actual generations of U.S. residents. (See Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997.) These generation life tables provide the data needed to estimate the number of living persons who have ever been incarcerated.
A generation life table traces a birth cohort of 100,000 persons through their entire lives, subjecting them to the observed age-specific mortality and incarceration rates which they encountered in each subsequent calendar year of life. The procedure is known as a double-decrement life table because there are two forms of exit from the initial 100,000 birth cohort. The procedure yields estimates of the number of persons in the birth cohort who are incarcerated for the first time each year or who die.
At each year of age, the estimated number of living persons ever incarcerated is equal to the number of persons identified as a prisoner for the first time that year plus the number of surviving members of the birth cohort who were prisoners in prior years. The age-specific prevalence rate for members of the birth cohort is obtained by dividing the surviving number of persons ever incarcerated by the number of members of the 100,000 birth cohort who have survived to the current age (including both those never incarcerated and those ever incarcerated).
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Appendix table 1. Calculating the number of persons ever
incarcerated in State or Federal prison, 2001
Prevalence of ever going to prison, 2001
U.S. resident
population,
Year of Age in 2000[a] Percent Number[c]
birth 2001 (1) (2) (3)
1983-1901 18 or older 210,207,901 2.673 5618000
2001-1988 0-13 56,557,383 0.000 0
1987 14 4,063,179 0.000 0
1986 15 4,071,585 0.000 0
1985 16 4,083,677 0.036 1,000
1984 17 4,117,221 0.174 7,000
1983 18 4,022,021 0.453 18,000
1982 19 4,327,407 0.794 34,000
1981 20 4,264,552 1.146 49,000
1980 21 4,140,721 1.510 63,000
1979 22 3,935,452 1.845 73,000
1978 23 3,756,052 2.155 81,000
1977 24 3,766,377 2.428 91,000
1976 25 3,643,765 2.676 97,000
1975 26 3,572,926 2.911 104,000
1974 27 3,579,019 3.082 110,000
1973 28 3,386,129 3.252 110,000
1972 29 3,876,011 3.360 130,000
1971 30 3,989,205 3.506 140,000
1970 31 4,032,301 3.584 145,000
1969 32 3,993,019 3.689 147,000
1968 33 3,899,282 3.764 147,000
1967 34 4,057,246 3.824 155,000
1966 35 4,110,892 3.857 159,000
1965 36 4,182,093 3.895 163,000
1964 37 4,416,302 3.887 172,000
1963 38 4,265,440 3.840 164,000
1962 39 4,826,377 3.778 182,000
1961 40 4,725,422 3.692 174,000
1960 41 4,634,371 3.641 169,000
1959 42 4,597,285 3.563 164,000
1958 43 4,518,648 3.507 158,000
1957 44 4,668,310 3.439 161,000
1956 45 4,464,137 3.356 150,000
1955 46 4,227,667 3.267 138,000
1954 47 4,192,570 3.180 133,000
1953 48 3,863,432 3.068 119,000
1952 49 4,131,847 2.953 122,000
1951 50 3,838,209 2.819 108,000
1950 51 3,595,173 2.688 97,000
1949 52 3,516,992 2.584 91,000
1948 53 3,497,820 2.475 87,000
1947 54 3,668,994 2.397 88,000
1946 55 3,180,818 2.341 74,000
1945 56 2,746,790 2.280 63,000
1944 57 2,788,492 2.220 62,000
1943 58 2,665,273 2.173 58,000
1942 59 2,710,967 2.131 58,000
1941 60 2,398,614 2.086 50,000
1940-1931 61-70 19,778,402 ... 377,000
1930-1901 71 or older 23,755,091 ... 384,000
[a] The number of U.S. residents on December 31, 2001, by age, were
based on projections for July 1, 2000, and July 1, 2001.
(See Projections of the Resident Population by Age, Sex,, Race and
Hispanic Origin: 1999 to 2100, U.S. Census Bureau, NP-D1-A, middle
series.) The data were adjusted for the undercount in the 1990
decennial census.
Based on separate generation life tables starting in the year of
birth of the persons at each year of age. (See Appendix tables 2
and 3 for calculations for selected years of birth.)
[c] Estimates were calculated by multiplying column (1) by column (2)
and rounded to the nearest 1,000.
... Not shown, because all calculations were based on rates for single
years of age.
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To model the incarceration experience of the adult resident population in 2001, a separate generation life table was needed for each birth cohort born from 1901 to 1983. For example, of those born in 1980 and alive in 2001, an estimated 1.510% had ever gone to prison (Appendix table 1, column 2). Multiplying by 4,140,721 U.S. residents age 21 in 2001 (column 1), produced an estimate of 63,000 persons, age 21 in 2001, who had ever been incarcerated (column 3).