Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U.S. Population, 1974-2001

by Thomas P. Bonczar

Between 1974 and 2001, the lifetime chances of going to State or Federal prison for U.S. residents overall in- creased from 1.9% to 6.6%. Each estimate summarized the effects of first incarceration and mortality during a 12-month period in 1974, 1986, 1991, and 2001. The estimates do not take into account changes in rates of first incarceration or mortality that occur after the "birth" of the hypothetical cohort. As a result of steadily rising rates of first incarceration from 1974 to 2001, the lifetime chances of going to prison for persons born in 1974 will be higher than 1.9%. Based on rates of first incarceration through 2001, an estimated 2.6% of persons born in 1975 had already been incarcerated by age 25.

6 times higher lifetime chance of going to prison in 2001 for men than for women

Based on rates of first incarceration in 2001, the lifetime chances for men of going to prison are 6 times greater than those for women (table 9). A male has a 11.3% (or 1 in 9) chance in his life-time of going to prison, while a female has a 1.8% (or 1 in 56) chance. An estimated 9.6% of men and 1.5% of women are expected to go to prison by age 40, as first incarceration rates riserapidly, then decline with advancing age (figures 4 and 5).

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Table 9. Lifetime chances of going to State or Federal prison for
the first time, by gender, race, and Hispanic orign, 1974-2001
Percent of resident population expected to go to
State or Federal prison for the first time, by
year--
1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2001
Gender
Male 3.6% 4.1% 6.0% 9.1% 10.6% 11.3%
Female 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8
Race/Hispanic origin
White* 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 3.1 3.4%
Male 2.2 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.4 5.9
Female 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9
Black* 7.0% 7.2% 9.3% 16.5% 17.7 18.6%
Male 13.4 13.4 17.4 29.4 31.0 32.2
Female 1.1 1.4 1.8 3.6 4.9 5.6
Hispanic 2.2% 3.3% 6.2% 9.5% 10.5 10.0%
Male 4.0 6.0 11.1 16.3 18.0 17.2
Female 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.2
Note: Percents represent the chances of being admitted to State or
Federal prison during a lifetime.
Estimates were obtained by applying age-specific first incarceration
and mortality rates for each group to a hypothetical population of
100,000 births. See Methodology.
*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.
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Figure 4
+Nearly 1 in 3 black males likely to go to prison
based on constant 2001 incarceration rates+
Cumulative percent of males going to prison
Age Total White Black Hispanic
13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1
17 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.3
18 0.8 0.3 3.0 1.0
19 1.4 0.5 4.9 2.1
20 2.1 0.8 6.7 3.0
21 2.7 1.2 8.2 4.1
22 3.3 1.5 9.8 5.0
23 3.8 1.6 11.8 5.5
24 4.3 1.8 13.7 6.0
25 4.7 2.1 15.1 6.7
26 5.2 2.3 16.9 7.2
27 5.6 2.5 18.0 7.9
28 6.1 2.8 19.3 8.6
29 6.5 3.0 20.2 9.3
30 6.9 3.3 21.0 10.3
31 7.2 3.4 22.2 10.8
32 7.6 3.6 23.2 11.0
33 7.9 3.8 23.8 11.5
34 8.1 4.0 24.5 12.0
35 8.4 4.1 25.2 12.5
36 8.7 4.3 26.1 13.0
37 9.0 4.4 27.2 13.2
38 9.2 4.6 27.7 13.4
39 9.4 4.7 28.2 13.8
40 9.6 4.7 28.6 14.1
41 9.7 4.9 29.1 14.4
42 9.9 5.0 29.5 14.8
43 10.1 5.1 30.0 15.2
44 10.3 5.2 30.3 15.4
45 10.4 5.2 30.7 15.6
46 10.5 5.3 30.8 15.8
47 10.6 5.3 31.1 15.9
48 10.6 5.4 31.2 15.9
49 10.7 5.5 31.3 16.1
50 10.7 5.5 31.4 16.1
51 10.8 5.5 31.5 16.4
52 10.9 5.6 31.6 16.5
53 10.9 5.7 31.7 16.6
54 11.0 5.7 31.8 16.7
55 11.0 5.7 31.9 16.8
56 11.0 5.7 32.0 16.8
57 11.1 5.7 32.0 16.9
58 11.1 5.8 32.0 16.9
59 11.1 5.8 32.0 17.0
60 11.1 5.8 32.0 17.1
61 11.2 5.8 32.1 17.1
62 11.2 5.8 32.2 17.1
63 11.2 5.8 32.2 17.1
64 11.2 5.8 32.2 17.2
65 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.2
66 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.2
67 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.2
68 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.2
69 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.2
70 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.2
71 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.2
72 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.2
73 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.2
74 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.2
75 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.2
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Figure 5
1 in 19 black females compared with 1 in 118 white
females likely to go to prison
Cumulative percent of females
going to prison
Age Total White Black Hispanic
13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
18 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
19 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1
20 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2
21 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3
22 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3
23 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.5
24 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.5
25 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.6
26 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.6
27 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.7
28 0.6 0.3 1.8 0.8
29 0.7 0.4 2.1 0.9
30 0.8 0.4 2.3 1.1
31 0.9 0.4 2.7 1.1
32 1.0 0.5 3.0 1.2
33 1.1 0.5 3.3 1.3
34 1.1 0.6 3.5 1.4
35 1.2 0.6 3.7 1.5
36 1.3 0.6 4.0 1.6
37 1.3 0.7 4.2 1.7
38 1.4 0.7 4.4 1.7
39 1.4 0.7 4.6 1.8
40 1.5 0.8 4.7 1.8
41 1.5 0.8 4.9 1.9
42 1.6 0.8 4.9 1.9
43 1.6 0.8 5.1 1.9
44 1.6 0.8 5.2 1.9
45 1.6 0.8 5.3 1.9
46 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.0
47 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.1
48 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.1
49 1.7 0.8 5.5 2.1
50 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.1
51 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.1
52 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.1
53 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
54 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
55 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
56 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
57 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
58 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.2
59 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.2
60 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.2
61 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
62 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
63 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
64 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
65 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
66 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
67 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
68 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
69 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
70 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
71 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
72 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
73 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
74 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
75 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
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In 2001, the chances of going to prison were highest among black males (32.2%)and Hispanic males (17.2%) and lowest among white males (5.9%). The lifetime chances of going to prison among black females (5.6%) were nearly as high as for white males. Hispanic females (2.2%) and white females (0.9%) had much lower chances of going to prison.

As a result of changes in first incarceration and mortality rates between 1974 and 2001, black males experienced a greater increase in the chances of going to prison over the course of a lifetime than any other group (from 13.4% in 1974 to 32.2% in 2001). Hispanic males experienced the second largest increase (from 4.0% in 1974 to 17.2% in 2001). White males experienced a smaller increase (from 2.2% in 1974 to 5.9% in 2001).