Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U.S. Population, 1974-2001

by Thomas P. Bonczar

Lifetime likelihood estimates of going to prison differ from current prevalence estimates

The lifetime likelihood of going to prison is an estimate of the percentage of all persons in a birth cohort expected to go to prison over the course of a lifetime. In contrast, the prevalence of ever having gone to prison is an estimate of the percentage who have ever gone to prison among just the surviving members of all birth cohorts over a specific period.

Estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison project the percentage of persons at birth expected to go to prison, if the entire cohort were subject to a fixed set of rates of first admission to prison and mortality over an entire lifetime. In calculating these estimates, incarceration and mortality rates are fixed at the time of "birth" of the cohort.

Standard life table techniques were used to prepare estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison based on rates of first incarceration during a 12-month period derived from inmate surveys conducted in 1974, 1979, 1986, 1991, and 1997. (See Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997, for a description of previous estimates.)

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6.6% of persons born in 2001 will go to prison, if current rates of first incarceration remain unchanged

If rates of first incarceration and mortality in 2001 remain unchanged, nearly 1 in 15 persons born in 2001 (6.6%) will go to State or Federal prison during their lifetime (figure 3).

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Figure 3
The lifetime chances of going to prison reached 6.6% in 2001,
up from 1.9% in 1974
Cumulative percent of U.S. residents
going to prison
Age 1974 1986 1991 2001
13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
17 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
18 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4
19 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8
20 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1
21 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5
22 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.8
23 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.1
24 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.4
25 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.6
26 1.1 1.7 2.6 2.9
27 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.1
28 1.3 1.9 3.0 3.4
29 1.4 2.0 3.2 3.6
30 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.9
31 1.5 2.2 3.5 4.1
32 1.5 2.3 3.6 4.3
33 1.5 2.4 3.7 4.5
34 1.6 2.5 3.9 4.7
35 1.6 2.5 4.0 4.9
36 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.1
37 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.2
38 1.7 2.7 4.3 5.4
39 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.5
40 1.7 2.8 4.5 5.6
41 1.7 2.9 4.5 5.7
42 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.8
43 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.9
44 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.0
45 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1
46 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1
47 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2
48 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2
49 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.2
50 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.3
51 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.3
52 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.4
53 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
54 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
55 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
56 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
57 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.5
58 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.5
59 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.5
60 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
61 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
62 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
63 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
64 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
65 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.6
66 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.6
67 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
68 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
69 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
70 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
71 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
72 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
73 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
74 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
75 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
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Unlike the yearend 2001 prevalence rate of 2.7%, which represents the cumulative result of the past incarceration experiences of the living adult population, the lifetime likelihood is a hypothetical projection of the future if a birth cohort were to experience a fixed set of rates of first incarceration and mortality over a lifetime.