Persons born prior to 1940 were nearly unaffected by the rising first incarceration rates of the 1980's and 1990's. At younger ages (up to the age of 40), the prevalence rates at 5-year age intervals were the same for persons born in 1935 as in 1910 (table 8). The rising rates of first incarceration increased the prevalence of incarceration among those born in 1935 as they reached age 45. Similarly, the prevalence rates rose for those born in 1930 as they reached age 50.
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Table 8. Percent of adults ever incarcerated in a State or Federal
prison, by year of birth and age
Percent of adults ever incarcerated in a State or Federal prison, by age--
Year
born 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
1910 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
1915 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
1920 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1925 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1930 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 +1.7+
1935 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 +1.9 1.9+
1940 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 +2.1 2.1 2.1+
1945 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 +2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4+
1950 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 +2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9+
1955 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 +3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7+
1960 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.5 +4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5+
1965 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.7 +4.4 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4+
1970 0.9 2.2 3.4 +4.4 5.1 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0+
1975 1.1 2.6 +3.9 4.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5+
1980 1.2 +2.7 4.0 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6+
Note: Based on constant age-specific first incarceration rates after
2001 (bolded type--indicated with plus (+) signs).
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Among persons born after 1935, the effects of rising first incarceration rates occurred at increasingly younger ages. Persons born in 1955 were the first to record higher prevalence rates at all ages, compared to persons born in prior years. At age 45 the percent ever having been in prison reached 3.2% for persons born in 1955 -- more than double the percent at that age among persons born in 1930 or earlier.
The greatest rise occurred in the percents having been incarcerated among the most recent cohorts. For persons born in 1975, 2.6% had been to prison by age 25, nearly equal to the percent among persons born in 1950 who had been to prison by age 50 (2.7%).
Projections for years after 2001 indicate the percent ever incarcerated will rise at an accelerated pace. If rates of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, 5.4% of persons born in 1965 are expected to have gone to prison by age 75, more than three times the 1.7% of persons born in 1930.
The projected rise in the percent ever incarcerated slows among persons in later cohorts. Of those born in 1970, 6.0% are expected to have been in prison by age 75, compared to 6.5% of those born in 1975, and 6.6% of those born in 1980.
3.4% of adults projected to have served time in prison by 2010
The prevalence of having been to prison will rise among the U.S. adult population as more birth cohorts experience the full impact of current levels of first incarceration. Assuming that current age-specific rates of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, the number of adults having ever served time in prison is projected to rise to 7.7 million by 2010. A total of 3.4% of the adult population (1 in 29 persons age 18 or older) is expected to have served time in prison.
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Projected prevalence of having gone to State or Federal prison*
Year Number Percent
2001 5,618,000 2.7%
2002 5,856,000 2.8
2003 6,095,000 2.8
2004 6,332,000 2.9
2005 6,568,000 3.0
2006 6,804,000 3.1
2007 7,040,000 3.1
2008 7,275,000 3.2
2009 7,511,000 3.3
2010 7,745,000 3.4
*Based on prevalence estimates for exact ages through 2001 and
projections for exact ages from 2002 through 2010. See
Methodology for estimation procedures.
Projected adult
Year resident population
2001 210,207,901
2002 212,427,944
2003 214,688,268
2004 216,918,713
2005 219,144,044
2006 221,409,946
2007 223,754,193
2008 226,155,771
2009 228,520,785
2010 230,792,746
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