Whether the British cabinet have yet determined upon relinquishing the war in America, I have not been able to learn. This is certain, that they have ordered considerable quantities of clothing and provisions to be made ready for that quarter, which looks as if they intended their fleet and army should winter with you. From their situation at present, and that of Europe, it appears improbable that they can reinforce, or even recruit their army to any effect. Their naval force is so exactly balanced in Europe by that of France alone, that they can hardly venture to detach any more of their fleet against you. It seems, therefore, that you have before you the utmost force that you are likely to contend with.
It serves the purposes of the enemy to propagate reports of aid from Russia, sometimes in ships, sometimes in troops. As far as there is any certainty in political events, you may be assured they will have neither. The plan they adopt for Parliament, which will meet the 26th, will, I imagine, depend much on the representations of Lord Howe and Governor Johnstone, who are both arrived in England.
Should their fleet and army winter in America, it will be a capital object to intercept their provision fleets. For this purpose I shall obtain and transmit to you, from time to time, intelligence of their being collected at Cork, from which you may judge what time they may be expected on the coast.
The whale fishery, which the enemy have established on the coast of Brazil, and which they carry on by men from Nantucket, is likely to become very valuable; and being totally unprotected, it might be destroyed at one blow.
The instruments for abolishing the 11th and 12th articles are exchanged, and that matter entirely settled.
I have the honor to be, &c.
TO THE COMMITTEE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS.
Paris, November 15th, 1778.