Gentlemen,
I am informed, that it is determined in the Cabinet of London not to recall their Commissioners this winter. Governor Johnstone has been very graciously received; Lord Howe not. He conducts himself as one that is discontented, and has not been at Court. It is given out, that Johnstone declares he is possessed of impeachable matter against both the Howes.
I before mentioned, that the enemy was preparing to send out provisions and clothing for their troops, as if it was intended they should remain in America. It is also certain, that they have contracted for twelve thousand tons of shipping for the beginning of next March. They talk of sending over either ten thousand British, or twelve thousand Russians, for the next campaign, which I am assured and believe they have determined to risk.
To sustain this, they affirm very confidently, that a triple alliance offensive and defensive is concluded between Russia, Prussia, and Great Britain. This I believe is at best anticipation. That such an alliance will be the subject of this winter’s negotiation is very probable; perhaps too it may succeed, and that Denmark and Sweden may join. But the good effects of it in favor of our enemy are very problematical. It will inevitably draw forth Spain, which in our part of the question is of much more weight than all the rest. And as to the general war, the league that would be necessarily formed against the other, between the United States, the Empress, France, and Spain, would be the most powerful. I do not count upon Portugal, Naples, Tuscany, and Sardinia, which yet, in all human probability, will join our confederacy. The temper of Holland is such, that the junction of the United Provinces may well be expected, if England has not the wisdom to recede from her claims; and if she does, the Hollanders, having gained the points in trade which they contend for, will render their neutrality perhaps more favorable to us in matters of supply, than an actual confederation.
These are the plans, that must employ the negotiation of all Europe during this winter, which will produce either a general pacification or a general war. The latter is what our enemy is endeavoring to effect. In doing this, by the same fated perversion of understanding, which has happily prevailed in all their measures, they are laboring to secure what they wish to subvert, the absolute independency of America. For there never was a political event more manifest and sure, than that a general war must involve in it the independence of the United States, as an inevitable consequence.
The obtaining money in Europe is doubtful, though not desperate. But this seems very probable, that if the irritation and ill humor in Holland is continued by England’s persisting in the interruption of their trade, they will lend us money out of revenge; and if England retracts, the Dutch will send us such plentiful supplies, and take in return our produce as in a great measure to compensate for the want of funds. The dispute seems to be in such a state, that there is no medium. I am therefore in hopes, that if the war should continue, the distress of it will press with much more severity upon our enemies than on us.
I am informed, that a Swedish ship, the Henrica Sofia, Captain P. Held, loaded with Spanish property, bound from London to Teneriffe, has been taken by Captain Cunningham in the Revenge, which being considered in Spain as a violence done to them, has given great offence. I have assured them, that upon its being made to appear in the Admiralty Court in America, that the property is neutral, it will be restored, with such damages as are just. The Court of Spain is so much offended at Captain Cunningham’s conduct before this, that they write me orders have been sent to all their ports to prohibit his entrance. From the beginning to the end of this business of Cunningham, it has been so bad, that Congress only can correct it, by punishing those who are concerned. It has cost the public more than one hundred thousand livres, and embroiled us both with the French and Spanish Courts.
The State of Virginia having sent for arms and artillery necessary for their defence, and some advances being absolutely necessary to obtain the supply, I ventured to advance fifty thousand livres out of the public funds in my hands. Had not this demand pressed so much, I certainly should not have done this without the permission of Congress. But as it is, and though I expect the reimbursement before the articles I have ordered for the public will call for payment, yet I think it my duty to communicate this transaction, and submit it to the censure of Congress. I expect a complete cargo is by this time shipped in my department, consisting of blankets, shoes, tentcloth, sailcloth, and rigging for a vessel of five hundred tons. This cargo, with what went before, should contain ten thousand blankets. I have ordered twenty thousand more, which, with half of the freight, I am obliged to advance for the above cargo, will more than employ all the funds in my hands.
I have the honor to be, &c.