The offer is rather ill timed, and I have reason to think is not very agreeable to the Courts of Versailles and Madrid, which will act with entire union on this occasion, and as long as the present King of Spain lives, it is probable, that this good understanding will continue on the whole continent, although there are some here, I believe, who would wish to see it interrupted. While it subsists Spain will not abandon our interests, though it may not support them with such good will, as they would have been induced to do by the obligations of previous engagements with the United States. It is not likely that these will soon take place, notwithstanding the appearance of good will, and repeated assurances which Mr Jay has received of his Majesty's favorable disposition. Nor will the late change of measures adopted by Congress effect this, if I am not misinformed. I have not seen these resolutions in full, nor do I know that Mr Jay has received them, but I have reason to believe, that the Court has a knowledge of them, either by intercepted letters, or by a direct communication from America. In short I repeat to the Committee, what I have taken the liberty of remarking before, that it was probably the policy of this Court to leave the adjustment of their claims to be settled at the general negotiation of a treaty of peace, and to reserve to themselves the liberty of acting then according to circumstances, unless they can previously secure in their own manner their favorite objects. This accords with the conduct they have hitherto observed, and with maxims of policy long adopted and persevered in by this Court.
In the meantime, they show a decided disposition to continue the war. They expect some treasure from America. They are likely to procure eight millions of dollars on loan, and have propositions from other quarters. The taxes have been augmented this year, the produce of the last having, as I have been told, fallen short of the expectations of the Ministry. They have thirtysix sail of the line under sailing orders at Cadiz, which fleet will probably cruise to meet the treasure ships expected, and to intercept the succors destined to Gibraltar. They have ordered a press throughout the kingdom to fill up their regiments. The ships with the treasure were to sail from Vera Cruz to the Havana the 11th of October. The Court seems apprehensive of the Emperor's intentions, and cultivates the friendship of the King of Prussia, for which purpose it is about to send a Minister to Berlin, where they have had none for many years past. This matter is not yet public, and will undoubtedly chagrin the Court of Vienna.
Mr Jay has been promised a part of the three millions of reals, mentioned in my former letters, to enable him to discharge the bills, which become due the ensuing month, and, I suppose, will receive the whole as the bills become payable, until the sum is exhausted, before which time, funds must be provided for such as have since been presented, or may hereafter come to hand. It is with pain I have lately entered to the amount of between thirty or forty thousand dollars, at three months' sight, as there is yet no certainty of their being paid, yet I flatter myself that the Court, with the good disposition it appears to have, will not suffer our credit to be ruined, after what it has done and promised to do to preserve it.
M. Gardoqui, so often mentioned, will embark in six weeks or two months. Mr Cumberland is still here, inspiring all the distrust and jealousy in his power to prejudice our affairs. I hope, however, he will soon be dismissed. Vigorous preparations are making in France, and I flatter myself that the Count d'Estaing will once more visit our coasts in force. I believe he desires it, and I am told he is on good terms with the new Minister of Marine. The Count de Vergennes was in a bad state of health by the last advices from Paris, but for information from that quarter, I refer the Committee to letters I suppose Congress will receive from Dr Franklin. It is with hesitation I venture to give my sentiments, and if I should be deceived, it is not for want of pains, but of opportunity of obtaining more accurate information.
I have the honor to be, &c.
WILLIAM CARMICHAEL.
TO THE COMMITTEE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS.
Madrid, February 22d, 1781.
Gentlemen,
My last was of the 29th ult. since which, I have deferred writing, in hopes of having it in my power to give the Committee more distinct information of the actual situation of affairs in Europe at this important crisis, when its attention is turned to the conduct of the Empress of Russia and the armed neutrality, and to that of the Emperor, who, notwithstanding the offer of mediation, I had the honor to mention in my last, is, as I am informed, regarded with a jealous and suspicious eye. But the vessels, which take on board part of the clothing, of which I advised you at the time, and since it was promised, being about to sail, I seize the present occasion of writing, lest another from the ports of this kingdom should not soon present itself.