Our affairs here are in much the same state as when I last wrote the Committee. No further progress has been made in the negotiation. Mr Jay has received various letters and papers from Congress, dated in October. This day he has obtained an order for thirtytwo thousand dollars, to pay for part of the clothing to be shipped at Cadiz, of which he has not yet received the invoices, and to discharge the bills due this month. The Minister promises to furnish the whole of the three millions of reals mentioned in former letters, and to contribute to our further relief, as far as the exigencies of the State will permit him. These, I have reason to think, are urgent and great, and that the funds arising from the revenues and loans are, for the most part, appropriated before they are received.
I am not informed, that any positive answer has been given yet to the Emperor's offer of mediation. It is ill-timed, and I believe, in reality, is not well taken. I know that this Court is about to send a Minister to Berlin, where they have had none for a long time. The circumstances of such an appointment at this juncture, seem to imply apprehensions of the Emperor's intentions. I enclose two extracts of letters sent to me by M. Dumas, which contain intelligence that indicates the intentions of the Empress of Russia. The first letter I know to be genuine, for I saw the substance of it here in good hands, before I received M. Dumas's letter. If the Empress does not openly declare against England, she will, at all events, protect the Dutch commerce, and this must terminate speedily in open hostilities. I have observed, of late, a change of conduct in the Russian Ambassador at this Court, whom I have an opportunity of meeting frequently in company; from being cold and distant, he is complaisant and affable. I also find him very attentive to the French Ambassador.
Portugal has been much pressed by Russia to accede to the treaty of the armed neutrality, but the English party at this Court is too strong to expect success from these applications. The attachment of this King to his deceased sister, and at present to his niece, the Queen of Portugal, will prevent any violent measures being taken by our ally or Spain, to force that nation to adopt other measures. The republican party in Holland are in good spirits. Zealand has dropped the opposition it made to hostile measures, so that at present there is an unanimity in the States on that interesting point.
The troops for America were embarked, or embarking, the last of the past month. They consist of three or four thousand men (recruits included), and of Fullarton's and another ragged regiment, to use the words of Mr Edmund Jennings, who gives this information. The greater part of these, it is supposed, are destined to the East Indies, and Commodore Johnson is named by the public to command an expedition, which is to attack the Cape of Good Hope on its passage. The Ministry in England is the same. They have a great majority in Parliament. The Protestant associations begin to stir a little. Lord G. Gordon is acquitted. Stocks have fallen considerably since the Dutch war, not less than two and a half or three per cent. The subscriptions for the loans of the present year, it is generally believed, will be paid in slowly. Our ally pushes the preparations for the present campaign vigorously, but on the 14th instant the commander was not named for the fleet, which is to sail next month for the American seas, and which I am told, will consist of twentyfive sail of the line. I have no exact account of the number of troops to be embarked, but the lowest computation makes them consist of seven thousand men. The Count de Maurepas was ill by the last advices from Paris.
The Spanish squadron of thirty sail of the line is at sea, that of England it is supposed will sail about this period of time. Mr Cumberland gives out, that he has demanded a passport of the Court, but that he is told to have patience. I hope, however, he will not stay here long. M. Gardoqui will, probably, embark in all next month or the beginning of April. I beg the Committee to consider the intelligence I give them from time to time, particularly that from other countries, as the latest and most authentic I can procure, but for the truth of which I cannot vouch.
I have the honor to be, &c.
WILLIAM CARMICHAEL.
TO THE COMMITTEE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS.
Madrid, March 4th, 1781.