Turks will endeavor to hold Armenian Taurus.
The road that Xenophon traveled.
As a preliminary the Russians must clear their right wing by capturing Trebizond and utilizing it as a sea base. Asia Minor is a high tableland, in shape like the sole of a boot turned upside down, with the highlands of Armenia representing the heel. The Turks, having lost their only base and headquarters at Erzerum, have now to rush troops, guns, and stores from Constantinople to the railhead at Angora and endeavor to rally their defeated forces to the east of Sivas. In the meantime, the Russians will have overrun some 250 miles of Turkish territory before they are held up even temporarily. The Turkish army in Syria will be rushed to Diarbekr to rally their defeated right wing and endeavor to hold the Armenian Taurus Mountains against the Grand Duke's left wing. If the Russians break through here, then all is lost to the Turks in the south. They, however, have a most difficult task before them, because the hills here reach their highest. There is a road of sorts, because we know that Xenophon in ancient times traveled it with his 10,000 Greeks, and the Turks did the same recently, when they sent reinforcements to Bagdad. Both must have traveled light, and the Russians will have to do the same. This means that the Turks on the south will be better supplied with guns than their opponents, who will have to rely once more on their bayonets.
British forces in the south ample.
The Tigris and other available routes.
Plans of the British army.
Russian and British forces would join.
In the extreme south the British have ample force now to carry out their part of the contract. We know that some 80,000 veteran Indian troops have arrived from France, as well as other large reinforcements from India. It is unlikely that these will all proceed up the Tigris River, because sufficient troops are already there who are restricted to a narrow front, owing to the salt marshes between the bend of the river and the Persian mountains. Two other routes are available, the Shat-el-Hai from Nasiriyeh to relieve the garrison at Kut-el-Amara from the south, and the Euphrates River, to attack Bagdad from the southwest, while the Russian flying wing at Kermanshah threatens it from the northeast. The Turkish report of heavy fighting at Nasiriyeh would indicate that one or both of these routes were being taken. Athens reports that Bagdad is about to fall. As it falls, a British flotilla will ascend the Euphrates and make direct for Aleppo. The British army from Kut-el-Amara and the Russians from Kermanshah will, after the fall of Bagdad—which is a foregone conclusion—ascend the Tigris River to Mosul, where they may be expected to get in touch with the other Russian flying wing from the Lake Urumia district. The combined force will then be in a position to force a junction with the Grand Duke's left wing, and then continue their advance on Aleppo.
Turkish army might retire to defend the Taurus passage.
Should the main army of the Grand Duke, as reported, converge on the Gulf of Alexandretta with intent to destroy the Turkish southern army, then the latter would be in a very dangerous position, because their northern army being, as yet, without a base or organization, is not in a position to take the offensive to assist them. If, on the other hand, the Turkish army of the south declines battle at Aleppo and retires to defend the Taurus passage, after abandoning half their Empire to the Allies, the latter will, if they have not previously anticipated it, have a difficult problem to solve as to how they are going to get their large forces in the south over the Taurus range to assist the Grand Duke in the final struggle. The forcing of the Taurus passage will mean fighting on a narrow front and will take time.