Secret of European success in Asia.
It says much for the stamina of this composite division that, although opposed throughout by five or six times their number of Turks and Turkish irregulars, the latter were unable to overwhelm them. To the Western mind, unacquainted with the mentality and moral weakness of the Moslem under certain circumstances, this may appear a most foolhardy adventure. To the Anglo-Indian the most obvious thing to do when in a tight corner is to go for the enemy no matter what their numbers. All Europeans in India develop an extraordinary pride in race, and an inherent contempt for numbers. It is the secret of their success there. Most Moslems fight well when posted behind strong natural defenses. In open country, such as Mesopotamia, they do not show to so much advantage. Another trait is that when their line of retreat is threatened they are more timorous than European troops. This weakness will have important bearings on the future of the campaign on the Tigris Valley, because the communications of the Turks are threatened by the Russians far in their rear and in more than one place.
Kut-el-Amara of great strategical importance.
Townshend's camp at Kut-el-Amara is well supplied with stores and munitions, and will soon be relieved. When his retreat was cut off at the bend of the Tigris River he could still have retired safely by following the Shat-el-Hai to Nasiriyeh. There was no thought, however, of retreat, Kut-el-Amara is geographically of great strategical importance, and the British garrison there has served the useful purpose of detaining large forces of the enemy where it was desired they should remain while important Allied developments were taking place in their flank and rear. Most of these Turkish reinforcements were withdrawn from Armenia when the depth of winter appeared to make it impossible for the Russians to break through the lofty hills of Caucasia.
Turks deceived by rumor about Grand Duke Nicholas.
The Grand Duke's strategy.
The rumor, so diligently put about, that the Grand Duke Nicholas had been retired in disgrace, after so ably extricating the Russian armies in Poland, and that he had been sent to Caucasia, served its purpose. The Turks were deceived by it, and sent part of their forces from Armenia to oppose the Anglo-Indian advance on Bagdad and arrived in time to turn the scale after the battle of Ctesiphon. When the Grand Duke fell on the unwary Turks their defeat was complete. Flying from Erzerum, one army made for Trebizond, another for the Lake Van district, and the rest went due west towards Sivas. The Grand Duke's right wing, center, and left are following in the same directions. He has two flying wings further south—one in the Lake Urumia district and the other advancing along the main caravan route from Kermanshah to Bagdad, while the British are furthest south at Kut-el-Amara. It will be observed that the whole of the Allied armies from the Black Sea to Kut-el-Amara are in perfect echelon formation, and it would be a strange coincidence if this just happened—say, by accident. Like the Syrian and Arabian littoral, Mesopotamia is another tube confined within the Syrian desert on the one side and the mountains of Armenia and Persia on the ether. All egress is stopped by the Allies' echelon formation, except by Aleppo.
Possible to cut Turkish Empire in two.
Petrograd advices at the time of writing (March 9th) state that the Grand Duke's main army is making for the Gulf of Alexandretta with intent to cut the Turkish Empire in two. This is not only possible, but highly probable, and the echelon formation of the Allies, together with the configuration of the country, lends itself to such an operation. The British army in Egypt and the British fleet could in such an eventuality coöperate to advantage.
Russians must take Trebizond.