Subsequently Mr. Hyde gives the present delusive average yields per acre of the whole country, and then throws a doubt on the future progress of agricultural science, saying, "Whatever agricultural science may be able to do in the next thirty years, up to the present time it has only succeeded in arresting that decline in the rate of production with which we have been continually threatened." Without dealing at present with this want of and true consideration of or "speculation" upon the progress made in the last decade under the lead of the experiment stations and other beginnings in remedying the wasteful and squalid methods that have been so conspicuous in pioneer farming, let us take Mr. Hyde's averages and see what demand upon land the requirements of 1930 will make, even at the present meager average product per acre.
Mr. Hyde apparently computes this prospective product as one that will be required for the domestic consumption of 130,000,000 people by ratio to our present product. He ignores the fact that our present product suffices for 75,000,000, with an excess of live stock, provisions, and dairy products exported nearly equal in value to all the grain exported, and in excess of the exports of wheat. If we can increase proportionally in one class of products, why not in another? Whichever pays best will be produced and exported.
1897 and 1930 compared.—Data of 1897.
| Products. | Average per acre. | Area required. | |
| Maize | 1,902,967,933 bushels. | 23.8 bushels. | 125,150 square miles. |
| Wheat | 530,149,168bus"hels | 13.4 bush"els. | 61,660squ"re m"iles |
| Oats | 698,767,809bus"hels | 27.2 bush"els. | 40,200squ"re m"iles |
| Hay | 60,664,770 tons. | 1.43bush"els. | 66,290squ"re m"iles |
| —————————— | |||
| Total in square miles | 293,300 square miles. | ||
All other farm crops carry the total to less than 400,000 square miles now under the plow, probably not exceeding 360,000.
Prospective demand of 1930, at the same meager average product per acre, without progress in agricultural science:
| Crop called for. | Per acre. | Area required. | |
| Maize | 3,450,000,000 bushels. | 23.8 bushels. | 226,600 square miles. |
| Wheat | 700,000,000bus"hels | 13.4 bush"els. | 81,600squ"re m"iles |
| Oats | 1,250,000,000bus"hels | 27.2 bush"els. | 70,800squ"re m"iles |
| Hay | 100,000,000 tons. | 1.43bush"els. | 109,400squ"re m"iles |
| ——————————— | |||
| Total in square miles | 488,400 square miles. | ||
Assuming all land under the plow in 1930 in the ratio as above, the area of all now in all crops 400,000 square miles—an excessive estimate—that year (1930) will call for 667,000 square miles of arable land in actual cultivation.
I have been accustomed to consider one half our national domain, exclusive of Alaska, good arable land in the absence of any "speculation" on that point in the records of the Department of Agriculture; but from the returns given by the chiefs of the experiment stations and secretaries of agriculture of the States hereafter cited, that estimate may be increased probably to two thirds, or 2,000,000 square miles of arable land out of a total of 3,000,000 square miles, omitting Alaska.