Assuming that we possess 2,000,000 square miles of arable land, capable at least of producing the present meager average product cited above, the conditions of 1930 will be graphically presented on the following diagram:
Prospective Use of Land in the Year 1930 on Present Crop Average.
(Arable land assumed to be 2,000,000 square miles in the outer lines of the diagram)
| Oats, 70,800 sq. miles. | Wheat, 81,600 sq.miles. | Hay, 109,400 sq. miles. | Miscellaneous. Roots, cotton, tobacco, etc., 168,600 sq. m. Excessive. | Maize, Indian corn, 226,600 sq. miles. | Wheat for export, 143,000 sq. miles. |
| Arable land unassigned | 1,200,000 square miles. | ||||
| Deduct for cities, towns, parks, and reserves of all kinds | 200,000squ"re m"iles | ||||
| ————— | |||||
| Reserve for future use | 1,000,000squ"re m"iles | ||||
| Forest, mountain, arid, etc., not counted, about 1,000,000 square miles, not included in these lines or squares. | |||||
No reduction on area cultivated on prospective improvement in the present methods of farming, although it may be assumed that the prospective increase of crop per acre will exert great influence.
If the facts should be in 1930 consistent with Mr. Hyde's "speculation" it would therefore appear that our ability to meet the domestic demand of 1930 with proportionate export of cattle, provisions, and dairy products, and to set apart a little patch of land for the export of 1,226,000,000 bushels of wheat raised at the rate of only 13.4 bushels per acre from 143,000 square miles of land will be met by the cultivation of not exceeding 700,000 square miles out of 2,000,000 available.
I should not venture to question the conclusions emanating from the Department of Agriculture, or the deductions of so eminent a scientist as Sir William Crookes, had I not taken the usual precaution of a business man in studying a business question. I went to the men who know the subject as well as the figures on which statistics are to be compiled.
Being supplied by the Popular Science Monthly with one hundred proofs of the first nine and a half pages of the December article in which the terms of the problem are stated, I sent those proofs to the chiefs of the experiment stations and to the secretaries of agriculture in all the States from which any considerable product of wheat is now or may be hereafter derived; also to many makers of wheat harvesters; to the secretaries of Chambers of Commerce, and to several economic students in the wheat-growing States. This preliminary study was accompanied by the following circular of inquiry:
Boston, Mass., October 5, 1898.
To the Chiefs of the Agricultural Experiment Stations and others in Authority:
Calling your attention to the inclosed advance sheets of an article which will by and by appear in the Popular Science Monthly, I beg to put to you certain questions.
If the matter interests you, will you kindly fill up the blanks below and let me have your replies within the present month of October, to the end that I may compile them and give a digest of the results? I shall state in the article that I am indebted to you and others for the information submitted.
Area of the State of....................... square miles.
1. What proportion of this area do you believe to be arable land of fair quality, including pasture that might be put under the plow?
Answer ................... square miles.
2. What proportion is now in forest or mountain sections which may not be available for agriculture for a long period?
Answer ................... square miles.
3. What has been done or may be done by irrigation?
.................................................................... .................................................................... ....................................................................
4. What proportion of the arable land above measured should you consider suitable to the production of wheat under general conditions such as are given in the text, say, a stable price of one dollar per bushel in London?
Answer ................... square miles.
5. To what extent, in your judgment, is wheat becoming the cash or surplus crop of a varied system of agriculture as distinct from the methods which prevail in the opening of new lands of cropping with wheat for a term of years?
.................................................................... .................................................................... ....................................................................
What further remarks can you add which will enable me to elucidate this case, to complete the article and to convey a true impression of the facts to English readers?
.................................................................... .................................................................... ....................................................................
Your assistance in this matter will be gratefully received.
Respectfully submitted,
Edward Atkinson.
To this circular I received twenty-four detailed replies, containing statistics mostly very complete; also many suggestive letters, in every case giving full support to the general views which I had submitted in the proof sheets. It has been impossible for me to give individual credit within the limits of a magazine article to the gentlemen who have so fully supplied the data. Space will only permit me to submit a digest of the more important facts in a table derived from these replies:
| Name. | FROM RETURNS MADE TO MY INQUIRY. | From United States report in wheat, 1897. | ||
| Area of State. | Arable. | Suitable to wheat | ||
| Minnesota | 84,287 | 66,000 | 50,000 | 7,189 |
| South Dakota | 76,000 | 42,500 | 40,000 | 4,187 |
| North Dakota | 74,312 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 4,300 |
| Illinois | 56,000 | 54,000 | 20,000 | 2,292 |
| Missouri | 68,000 | 64,000 | 64,000 | 2,448 |
| Wisconsin | 56,000 | 35,000 | 35,000 | 961 |
| —————— | ————— | ————— | ————— | |
| 414,599 | 311,500 | 259,000 | 21,372 | |
| =========== | ========= | ========= | ========= | |
| Texas | 269,694 | 200,000 | 100,000 | 700 |
| California | 158,360 | 54,000 | 30,000 | 5,062 |
| Montana | 145,310 | 30,000 | 25,000 | 109 |
| Idaho | 87,000 | 30,000 | 15,000 | 192 |
| —————— | ————— | ————— | ————— | |
| 660,364 | 314,000 | 170,000 | 6,063 | |
| =========== | ========= | ========= | ========= | |
| Total | 1,074,963 | 625,500 | 429,000 | 27,435 |