The present mode of fighting, as developed in the trenches of Belgium and France, which takes all the glamour and romance and glory out of war, and reduces it to a dismal contest of organization and machinery, requires, for its successful prosecution, preparation of forces and machinery which demands much time. The recruiting, organization, training and equipment of men to fight modern battles is also a work of considerable time. In the preparation of naval defense time is still a more essential factor. The ocean which separates us from Europe is no longer a barrier, but a highway. The transportation of men and arms and munitions is far easier and more expeditious by sea than by land. So the broad ocean is no longer our protection.
The analogy of the prizefighter and the private citizen misses the mark. The prizefighter is held in check by the local police force which all governments and municipalities must possess, no matter how peaceful their ideals. If there were an international police force capable of preserving the peace among nations, then it would not be necessary for a nation to arm, any more than it is now necessary for the private citizen to arm. But in the absence of such a protection it is necessary for each nation to look to its own protection.
In the absence of a world Court of Justice empowered by the stronger nations to settle international disputes, and armed with power to enforce its decrees, world peace can only be maintained by a proper adjustment of the balance of power. If all the great nations or groups of nations were about equally armed and equally prepared, the chance of wars would be minimized. The present conflagration in Europe and Asia is due largely to the fact that rival powers were nowhere nearly equally balanced. One power so amazingly surpassed the others in preparedness that conflicting forces could not be held in check. Had England and France been as prepared for war as Germany, and as efficiently organized, or had Germany been as negligent as England, the war could hardly have occurred. It would not have cost England a tithe of what she has already expended in this war to have been so well prepared as to have enabled her to absolutely hold the balance of power.
The argument that at the close of the present great war any of the belligerent nations will be too exhausted to attack us, will hardly hold water. The victor will have a great organized military establishment, with troops inured to war, and perhaps filled with the spirit of war. To such a power a rich, unarmed nation like ours might be an easy prey. At the conclusion of our civil war this country, although it had been for four years fighting an exhaustive war, was, from a military standpoint, stronger than it ever was before or ever has been since.
We may perhaps in time rely for peace on world ideals of peace, but until such ideals are of universal acceptance we cannot put our trust in them. We hope that our nation may, at the end of this war, be instrumental in organizing a world tribunal for Judicial Settlement, but in order to have weight in the world councils looking to that end, we shall have to speak with a strong voice. We shall have to be strong not only in ideals, but in real and potential force.
ONE PREDICTION FULFILLED—WHAT OF THE NEXT?
Writing in 1889, Hall, the famous English publicist, predicted that the conduct of the next great war would be hard and unscrupulous, but he added: “There can be very little doubt that if the next war is unscrupulously waged it will also be followed by a reaction toward increased stringency of law. I look forward with much misgiving to the manner in which the next great war will be waged, but with no misgiving at all to the character of the rules which will be acknowledged ten years after its termination by comparison with the rules now considered to exist.”
The prediction of the great publicist, made so many years ago, as to the next great war, has come true. The intervening wars have been trifling by comparison and marked by no material increase in severity, but the present war has passed all the bounds of precedent and even of imagination. Let us hope that the prophecy as to the modification of the laws of war after the present conflict is ended will be as measurably fulfilled.
The invention and application of death-dealing machinery and chemicals may even give the prophecy a larger fulfillment by the abolition of war altogether. For this we humbly hope and pray.