George W. Lawrence, president of the New York Coffee and Sugar Exchange, was called to Washington on February 28, 1918, to take charge of a newly created coffee division under Theodore F. Whitmarsh, chief of the distribution division of the food administration. In this position he rendered a signal service to the trade and to his country. Although subjected to a cross-fire of criticism from many green and roasted coffee interests, he never wavered in the performance of his full duty; and his good judgment, tact, and loyalty to American ideals, won for him a high place in the regard of all those who had the best interests of the country at heart. He was ably assisted in his work by Walter F. Blake, of Williams, Russell & Company, New York; and by F.T. Nutt, Jr., treasurer of the New York Coffee and Sugar Exchange.
A coffee advisory board was appointed in June 1918, to serve as a go-between for the trade and the food administration. Those who served on this committee were: Henry Schaefer, of S. Gruner & Co., New York, chairman; Carl H. Stoffregen, of Steinwender, Stoffregen & Co., New York, secretary; and William Bayne, Jr., of William Bayne & Co., New York; S.H. Dorr, of Arnold, Dorr & Co., New York; A. Schierenberg, of Corn, Schwarz & Co., New York; Leon Israel, of Leon Israel & Bro., New York; Joseph Purcell, of Hard & Rand, New York; B.F. Peabody, of T. Barbour Brown & Co., New York; J.D. Pickslay, of Williams, Russell & Co., New York; Charles L. Meehan, of P.C. Meehan & Co., New York; B.C. Casanas, of Merchants Coffee Co., New Orleans; John R. Moir, of Chase & Sanborn, Boston; and B. Meyer, of Stewart, Carnal & Co., New Orleans.
Others in the trade who served the food administration during the period of the World War were George E. Lichty, president of the Black Hawk Coffee & Spice Co., Waterloo, Iowa; and Theodore F. Whitmarsh, vice-president and treasurer of Francis H. Leggett & Co., New York.
The visible supply of coffee for the United States on January 1, 1918, was 2,887,308 bags. The world's visible supply was given as 10,012,000 bags; but to be added to this were more than 3,000,000 bags held by the São Paulo government. Thus there was little reason to fear a coffee shortage. That coffee should be permitted, with this large amount in view, to run wild as to price, was certainly not the intention of the food administrator, whose purpose was to keep foods moving to the United States forces and allies, and as far as possible, to keep reasonable prices for the United States consumers. Steadily advancing prices of foods meant increasing cost of labor, general unrest, and a difficult situation to meet at a period when the situation as a whole was most critical.
Trouble for the coffee trade was imminent early in 1918, when the shipping board, backed by experts, decided, or attempted to decide, that coffee was not a food product; that no vessels could be had for its transportation; and that it must be put on the list of prohibited or restricted commodities. Mr. Hoover, however, insisted that coffee was a very necessary essential, and that tonnage must be provided for an amount sufficient at all times to keep the visible supply for the United States up to at least 1,500,000 bags of Brazil coffee; and this figure was ultimately accepted and carried out by the shipping board.
These figures, based on the deliveries of the two preceding years, and with dealers limited to ninety days stock in the country, were deemed ample to care for all requirements. It was figured that by November 1, 1918, the freight situation would be relieved to such an extent by the new vessels building, that the amount could be increased should it be found necessary. The food administration, through the war trade board, offered steamer room to importers of record of the years 1916–17 at $1.70 per bag. The first few vessels were promptly filled on a basis of nine and one-quarter to nine and five-eighths cents, c. & f., for Santos 4s, well described. About the same time, our army and navy were able to buy at eight to eight and three-eighths cents f.o.b. Santos, for shipment by their own vessels. After the first few vessels offered by the War Trade Board were filled, the trade became indifferent. The warehouses in Brazil were loaded with stocks; vessels to carry coffee were assured buyers at a fixed rate (profits limited); and, as there was no apparent reason for an advance, buyers were willing to let the producing countries carry the stock.
The last week in June brought very cold weather in São Paulo, and cables reported heavy frost. The news was not taken seriously by the trade at large. "Frost news" from Brazil was no novelty, and in the past had always been looked upon as a regular and seasonable method of bulling the market. This year, however, the frost was a fact, and the market began to move upward with surprising speed. Reports of the damage to the trees varied from forty to eighty percent. Quotations from Santos advanced two cents per pound in as many days. United States buyers were not disposed to follow the advance; offerings of steamer room were declined; and boats booked for coffee, owing to the lack of cargoes, were transferred elsewhere. Meanwhile the market continued to advance rapidly. The allies were holding the enemy, and peace prospects were brighter. From September 1 to November 15, the records of the food administration showed very small purchases. The buyers did not believe in the frost. With the news of the armistice, Brazil markets went wild; and Santos 4s, which had sold at eight and one-quarter cents in May, were quoted at twenty and one-half cents by December 10.
The food administration had decided, on February 6, 1918, after consulting the committee appointed by the Exchange, and on their advice and recommendation, to permit trading in futures on the following plan: a fixed maximum price of eight and one-half cents per pound for the spot month, with a carrying charge not to exceed fifteen points per pound for delivery for each succeeding month. Thus the price for March delivery was fixed at eight and one-half cents, while July delivery could be sold at nine and one-tenths cents; but when July arrived, it became the spot month, and eight and one-half cents was the maximum at which it could be sold.
This rule effectively stopped speculation, but failed to work out satisfactorily to the trade. Experience proved that a maximum fixed price at which coffee could be traded in would have produced much better results. Business on the Exchange followed its usual course, and the customary hedging of purchases was done by dealers. The indifference of buyers, already referred to, had resulted in a heavy decrease of the United States visible supply; and it had shrunk to 2,445,000 bags on September 1; to 2,173,098 bags on October 1; to 1,857,260 bags on November 1. Included in these amounts were at least 500,000 bags, held in New York by foreign owners, which could not be sold; and of the balance left, there was undoubtedly a liberal amount sold against on the Exchange for future delivery. By October, the situation had become acute. Dealers who had classified themselves as jobbers or importers had gone into the retail classification in order to evade the limitations of profit allowed jobbers, and were limiting their sales to lots of twenty-five bags or fewer. Dealers who had legitimately hedged their holdings were unable to buy in.
The Exchange officials showed no disposition to relieve the situation; and as all prices had reached the maximum price for every month permitted, the food administration, on November 1, 1918, ordered the liquidation of all contracts outstanding, bought or sold, by not later than November 9. This was done; and the coffee covered by such contracts was released to the trade.