Mr. Chamberlain was not likely to be turned from his purpose by the difficulties and dangers of his position. The determination of such men is only aggravated by these elements. Their doubts are hardened into convictions at the whisper of compulsion. He had made up his mind, and he would certainly not have been bullied out of it. All sorts of ingenious and substantial alternatives occupied his imagination. An Irish National Assembly, sitting at Dublin, ‘free to make bye-laws,’ but ‘subject to the authority’ of Parliament—able to levy rates, but leaving ‘the Queen’s taxes to be settled at Westminster,’ would not have driven him away. But on the main point he would not budge, any more than Mr. Gladstone. He would not on any account erect ‘another sovereign authority similar to the Imperial Parliament.’ Rather than consent thereto he would face political ruin. And, indeed, it might have come very near to that latter conclusion in the summer months of 1886.
Lord Randolph Churchill now set himself to work by every means in his power to make the path of such an ally easy and smooth. To bring ‘the great Joe,’ as he is so often called in the Churchill-Salisbury correspondence, into the main line of the Union party seemed to him, indeed, a worthy aspiration. He possessed in private life a personal attractiveness and a wonderful manner—at once courtly, frank and merry—which he did not by any means always display. Only his intimate friends saw his best side. He now exerted himself to comfort Mr. Chamberlain in the difficulties by which he was beset, and to make him feel, in the midst of so much anxiety, that he was not without generous friends in the Conservative party, who were ready to work with him in this great fight without conditions or explanations of any kind—without, indeed, one thought beyond the immediate overpowering issue of the hour. The two men dined together often; they corresponded freely; they consulted almost every day.
The Ministerial resignations and the imminence of the Parliamentary crisis induced Lord Randolph to urge by telegraph Lord Salisbury’s return. The latter was, however, not well enough to travel for several days and in the meanwhile his lieutenants were in much perplexity. Lord Randolph wrote to Lord Salisbury on March 29:—
Joe’s conversation last night was somewhat to this effect: He has separated from Gladstone on account of the question of keeping the Irish M.P.’s at Westminster. Chamberlain’s Parliament or Council would be little more than a kind of central vestry, and the Irish M.P.’s would remain at Westminster as they now are. Gladstone’s Parliament is a real Parliament, and contemplates the departure of the Irish M.P.’s. Chamberlain is very anxious, and cannot count for certain on Radical support. He is rather ‘drawing a bow at a venture.’ He is much exercised because G.O.M. will not let him make any explanation of his resignation until after he has introduced his Bill. Thus G.O.M. has the advantage of first bark. I am going to dine with Joe to-night at his house, tête-à-tête, and shall learn more. Last night there were too many others present for much close conversation. Caine, on being asked to stand for Barrow, made a sine quâ non that he was to oppose Home Rule, and the Barrow Liberals have accepted him on this platform. This is not without significance. Gladstone declares he will have a majority of 100; the Government Whips say 20; R—— says he will be beaten by 70.
Joe told me he had not exchanged a word with John Morley for six weeks. Ashbourne was commenting last night on the fact that Archbishop Walsh had swallowed John Morley’s atheism. ‘Ah,’ said Morris, ‘John Morley spells God with a small g; but he spells Gladstone with a big G, and that satisfies the Archbishop.’
I shall write to you again to-morrow and tell you what I hear to-night.
March 30.—I hope this will catch you before you leave Monte Carlo. I learnt a good deal from my friend Joe last night. Gladstone’s scheme, when Chamberlain retired, was roughly to this effect: An Irish Parliament of one Chamber, with political powers equal to the constitution of Canada, controlling all sources of revenue, raising any taxes, with Ministers responsible to Irish Parliament. Some kind of shadowy veto reserved to Crown. No other guarantees or safeguards. The fiscal arrangement was to this effect: At present Ireland pays by taxation 8,000,000l. to Exchequer; of this England spends 4,000,000l. on expenses of Irish Government, and takes the balance towards service of debt, army and navy. In future Ireland is to pay 3,500,000l. to the Exchequer towards these three latter objects, and to pay for her Government as best she can.
The land scheme contemplated the issue of Consols to selling landlords at a rate which was the same all over Ireland, but which was to some extent influenced by the size of the holding. If everybody interested in land took advantage of the scheme simultaneously, the amount of Consols to be issued would be 220,000,000l.; but by various dodges this was not to take place, and the estimated gross issue of Consols was placed at 120,000,000l. On this advance Ireland would have to pay 3 per cent. interest and 1 per cent. sinking fund, or something over 4,000,000l. a year. So that the total payments to the Exchequer would be about what Ireland pays now—viz. 8,000,000l.—for which she would receive the land of Ireland and political independence. Chamberlain thought the whole scheme might be altered by the G.O.M. between last Friday and Thursday, 8th; but such it was in rough outline when he left them. Can you imagine twelve men in their senses silently swallowing such lunatic proposals?
Chamberlain said he could not support opposition to the introduction of this Bill; so that, I suppose, no such opposition will be pressed. He said that it was everything that the country should see the G.O.M. had had the fairest of fair play. He is going to reply to the G.O.M. on the 8th, and I could see he contemplates a smashing speech—in fact, a speech for dear life.... No doubt Chamberlain’s defection has increased Hartington’s numerical following, and it has also rather fluttered him, for fear he should be cut out by Chamberlain taking the lead. Chamberlain told me that there was not a chance of his ever serving in the same Cabinet with Goschen. This will make a reconstruction of the Liberal Government under Hartington impossible.
Political apprehension increased as the date for the declaration of the Irish policy drew near. This event, after various postponements, was finally fixed for April 8. Early in the month Lord Randolph persuaded Mr. Chamberlain and Lord Salisbury to meet. The Turf Club was the neutral ground selected. Thither Lord Salisbury repaired—not, as it appears, without trepidation and misgivings, and in the little dingy downstairs room where visitors are received, was begun that strange alliance afterwards so powerfully to affect the course of history. ‘I was very anxious to see you to-day,’ wrote Lord Randolph to Mr. Chamberlain on the 5th, ‘but learn you are gone home. Your friends, of whom you have many, of whose existence you are not perhaps aware, are desperately anxious that in any reply which you may make to Gladstone on Thursday, you should not commit yourself to, or acknowledge the authorship of, any alternative scheme. It would be a very dangerous piece of manœuvring with such a skilful opponent as the G.O.M., and besides might scatter dissension among the allies without conciliating estranged Radicals or infuriated Irish. Don’t be cross with me for troubling you. The situation is so critical for everybody that any genuine opinion is worth consideration.’