Your proposals about mining are being attentively considered.
The general aspect of the war is grim.
The Russian pressure is not what we expected, and another avalanche of [German] reinforcements is approaching the western theatre.
On October 17 Sir John Jellicoe telegraphed that a German submarine had been reported entering Scapa at 5 p.m. the previous day. Although he thought the report false, he took the whole Fleet to sea forthwith. He appealed urgently for submarine obstructions as he had ‘no safe base at present, and the only way to coal ships is to shift the coaling anchorages constantly which seriously dislocates the organisation of supply.’ On the 18th he stated that Scapa Flow could not be used till the Submarine Defence was placed. On the 19th he asked the Admiralty whether he should risk the submarine menace at Scapa Flow or move the Fleet to remote bases on the west coast of Scotland or Ireland ‘more than 300 miles from the Pentland Firth.’ He added, ‘It cannot be stated with absolute certainty that submarines were inside Scapa Flow, although Captain D, 4th Destroyer Flotilla, is positive H.M.S. Swift was fired at inside. I am of opinion that it is not difficult to get inside at slack water.’
Another very serious warning reached me almost simultaneously:—
Sir David Beatty to First Lord.
H.M.S. Lion,
October 17, 1914.
(Private.)
I take the opportunity of an officer going to London in charge of signal books, to write you of what goes on. I have written you before, or rather to Hood for you. I think it is right that you should know how things generally affect the Fleet. I trust that you will take this as it is written, in fact I know you will, as being written with only one idea of service to the country. I write as I do because I know that the plain truth at times such as these is the only thing worth hearing, and because you are the one and only man who can save the situation. Even at such times, official documents, requisitions and demands, are of little value; they are met at once I admit, but without understanding the time value of all that lies behind them.