These reasons seem to prove, that if the gold coin, deficient in June 1773 less than three grains, is estimated at five millions, (that is, at a little more than the coin deficient between three and six grains) it will be rated rather too high; and the conclusion will be, that the whole of our gold coin (exclusive of the Irish) might possibly be less, but could not have been much more, than the sum at which I have reckoned it.
Such have been the facts and arguments by which my judgment has been determined in this instance.—But it must not be overlooked, that it helps only to ascertain the quantity of circulating specie in the kingdom, as distinguished from that which is hoarded. When the Observations on Civil Liberty were published, I did not apprehend, that this part of the coin could be considerable enough to deserve regard. But the contrary has lately appeared. The Proclamation issued last summer, and which it was expected would bring in about three millions, has, I am informed, brought in about six millions and a half. This exceeds the sum at which I have been led to state the whole gold coin deficient less than three grains; and proves, that several millions must have been hoarded[85]. Nor, I think, will this appear incredible, when it is recollected, that only gold coin under three grains of deficiency is likely to be hoarded; and also, that distrust of the Funds and of Paper-money has a particular tendency to increase the practice of hoarding.
Assisted, therefore, by this new light, I would now state the circulating gold coin of the kingdom before 1773, nearly as I did before; and call it TWELVE or THIRTEEN MILLIONS. But the whole gold coin (including the hoarded part) I would reckon at SIXTEEN or SEVENTEEN MILLIONS[86].
An account very different from this was given at opening the Budget; the substance of which I will state as faithfully as my memory will enable me; and just as I understood it.
“From the beginning of the year 1772, to the 23d of April last, 13.200,000l. had been coined at the Tower; and on that day there was 600,000l. more ready to be coined.—All this, (it was intimated) is now left in the kingdom. The last Proclamation, it was expected, would bring in three millions more; which, added to the coin deficient less than a grain resting in the kingdom at the time of the Coin Act in 1773, and issued before 1772, will make the whole, Eighteen or Nineteen Millions[87].”
On this account I would observe,
First. That if just, it proves that, in 1773, a third at least of the circulating coin was in the best state possible. For the late calls having shewn, that there was then, in Britain and Ireland, no more than about twelve millions deficient more than a grain; six millions (that is, a third of eighteen millions) or seven millions (that is, more than a third of nineteen millions) must have been deficient less than a grain.[88]—It will also follow, (since the quantity brought in by the first call is known to have been 4.900,000l.) that but little more than a fourth could have been deficient so much as six grains, or a shilling in a guinea.—No person can think this credible who recollects the distress of traffic, and the complaints of the kingdom before 1773.
Secondly. The truth of the account I have stated depends, in a great measure, on the supposition, that all the gold coined since the beginning of 1772 is now in the kingdom. I cannot conceive on what grounds this was taken for granted.—From the beginning of 1772 to June 1773, the practice of clipping was more prevalent than it had ever been. During the greatest part of 1772, the price of gold was so much above mint price, that a profit, from 2 to 4 per cent. might be got by melting heavy guineas[89]. And, in February in that year, the price of gold was at 4l. 1s. 6d. per ounce; and 4½ per cent. might be got by melting heavy guineas. Instead, therefore, of believing, that all the gold coined since the beginning of 1772 remains with us; I think it almost certain, that the greatest part of all coined during the first year and a half of this period, has been either clipped or melted into bullion. That part which was clipped has been recoined; and that part which was melted has been either recoined or exported; and, therefore, neither has made any addition to the coin of the kingdom.
These observations demonstrate, that the amount of the gold coin at the time of the Coin Act in 1773, must have been near the sum at which I have reckoned it. There may, for ought I know, have been an increase since; but I shall not believe there has, till I know, whether the coin brought in by the last proclamation has been all recoined and issued. But this cannot be expected; for should it be done, Four Millions[90] more will have been coined and issued, than has been brought in.—The truth, therefore, may be, that the coinage, since June 1773, has been carried on only to provide a supply of new coin to be exchanged for old; in which case, the quantity of coin in the kingdom, even according to this method of computing it, will come out nearly the same with that which I have given.