After all, let the specie of the kingdom, including the silver, be allowed to be as considerable as some have asserted; or about four millions more than I have reckoned it; the difference arising from hence will not be of particular consequence; and it will be still true, that notwithstanding all our increase of trade and apparent opulence, the specie of the kingdom[91] is not much more than it was at the Revolution.—What then is all the rest of our circulating cash? What is it keeps up rents; feeds our luxury; pays our taxes; supplies the revenue, and supports government?—Paper, chiefly, emitted, not only at the Bank, but by tradesmen, merchants, and bankers in every corner of the kingdom.—And is this a solid and permanent support?[92] Is there, in the annals of the world, another instance of a great kingdom so supported?—The causes are numberless which may suddenly destroy it; and were this to happen, we should fall at once, with a debt of 140 millions upon us, to the state we were in before the Revolution.—Imagination cannot paint to itself the shock this would give.—I must repeat here what I have said in the Observations on Civil Liberty, page 73, &c. that we should think of nothing but guarding ourselves against the danger of such a situation, by restricting our paper currency, and gradually discharging our public debts.—In giving this admonition, I look upon myself as doing my country one of the best offices in my power; and acting in the character of one who calls to another to awake who is sleeping over a precipice.—But I know I call in vain.—The great minister who directs our finances has assured us all is well; and, under this persuasion, we are advancing, with unsuspicious and careless speed, to the catastrophe I have pointed out; and pursuing measures which must increase the difficulty of avoiding it, and the distress attending it.
Among these measures I have mentioned the present new coinage.—Before this coinage, I have observed, the light money always remained, because nothing could be got by melting and exporting it. But now, as soon as gold rises to the price it bore for many years before 1773, the melters and exporters of coin will be saved the trouble of selection; and every piece on which they can lay their hands will be proper for their purpose.—It seems, therefore, obvious, that, in consequence of this measure, all our coin may be carried away, and the whole superstructure of paper supported by it, break down, before we are aware of any danger.
I will take this opportunity to add, that this measure will at the same time increase our paper. This has been the consequence of the two former calls; but it will probably be more the consequence of the last call. For, as no coin is now to be current which is more than a grain deficient; and as also a great deal of it is already at or near that limit; the vexation attending it will be so intolerable, that it will be generally cried down, and paper substituted in its room.—Certain it is, that nothing can prevent this evil, but another evil; I mean, the deficient coin forcing itself again into circulation, and furnishing clippers with more employment than ever; and, consequently, a return, with increased violence, of the confusion and distress which took place before the Coin Act in 1773.—This, indeed, will be much the least of the two evils; nor, in my opinion, are there any methods of preventing the diminution of the coin, which will not produce greater evils, except such alterations in its form[93] as shall render clipping less practicable, joined to the execution of severe laws against clippers, and a strict vigilance in detecting them.
Upon the whole, it seems to me, that enough had been done by the first coin act to restore the gold coin; and that all which has been done since, at the expence of about 650,000l. has been nothing but a preparation of the coin for melters and exporters, to the dreadful hazard of the kingdom.—These are my present views of this subject. But I must say, that I suspect my own judgment in this instance. The noble Lord, who is furnished with infinitely more of the means of information than I am, intimated, if I remember rightly, that there is no such danger: And though I did not understand the reason he assigned for this assertion, I must believe, that, in a matter so particularly interesting to the kingdom, he has gone upon the best evidence.
SECT. II.
Of the State of the Nation; and the War with America.
At the beginning of the preceding section, I have taken notice of the flattering account which was given, at opening the Budget in April last, of the state of the kingdom with respect to its commerce, revenue, and opulence. On that account I shall beg leave to offer the following reflections.
First. The observations in the last section prove, I think, that it is not so well supported by facts, as there is reason to wish. I am sensible, indeed, that we never made a more gay and splendid appearance. But no considerate person will draw much encouragement from hence. That pride and security; that luxury, venality and dissipation which give us this appearance, are melancholy symptoms; and have hitherto been the forerunners of distress and calamity.
Secondly. When this account was given there was a particular end to be answered by it. Additional taxes were to be imposed; and it was necessary to reconcile the public to the prospect of a great increase of its burthens, in order to carry on the war with America.—On other occasions, different accounts had been given. In order to prove the justice of taxing the Americans, the weight of our own taxes had been often insisted upon; and the difficulty of raising a sufficient force among ourselves to reduce them, had been urged as a reason for seeking and employing, at a great expence, the assistance of foreign powers. On such occasions, I have heard our unhappy and embarrassed situation mentioned; and, at the end of the last session of Parliament, one of our greatest men, whose opinion in favour of coercion, had contributed to bring us into our present situation, acknowledged the distress attending it, and represented the vessel of the state as having never before rode in so dangerous a storm.—This is, without doubt, the truth. But, if the account on which I am remarking was just, we were then safe and happy; nor was the vessel of the state ever wafted by more gentle and prosperous gales.
But the reflection which, on this occasion, has given me most pain is the following.
If, without America, we can be in a state so flourishing, a war to reduce America must be totally inexcuseable. I wish I could engage attention to this. War is a dreadful evil; and those who involve a people in it needlessly, will find they have much to answer for. Nothing can ever justify it, but the necessity of it to secure some essential interest against unjust attacks. But, it seems, there is no interest to be secured by the present war. The revenue has never flourished so much, as since America has been rendered hostile to us; and it is now reckoned by many a decided point, that little depends on the American trade. It follows then, that if the end of the present war is to “obtain a revenue,” it is a revenue we do not want; if “to maintain authority,” it is an authority of no use to us.—Must not humanity shudder at such a war?—Why not let America alone, if we can subsist without it?—Why carry fire and sword into a happy country to do ourselves no good?